50 percent growth in world energy use predicted for 2030: Report

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that world marketed energy consumption will grow by 50 percent between 2005 and 2030.

These are the numbers in the reference case projection from the agency’s "International Energy Outlook 2008." The increase in consumption, the EIA says, is driven by robust economic growth and expanding populations in the world’s developing countries.

Average world oil prices in every year since 2003 have been higher than the average for the previous year, and prices in 2007 were nearly double the 2003 prices in real terms.

Nonetheless, although liquid fuels are expected to remain the largest single source of energy through 2030, the liquids share of marketed world energy consumption is projected to decline from 37 percent in 2005 to 33 percent in 2030.

In addition, the share of conventional oil in the overall liquids supply is expected to decline, with expanded use of unconventional oil, biofuels, and other unconventional liquids.

Other report highlights include:

Despite projected growth in alternatives, liquid fuels are
still expected to be the largest source of energy through 2030

— Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply over the past few years. It has accounted for 24 percent of total world energy use in 2002 and 27 percent in 2005, largely as a result of rapid increases in use in China.

— Concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generating capacity.

— Sustained high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable fuels.

— Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030 — an increase of 51 percent. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected, much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.

— via Truckinginfo.com


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