Energy analyst warns of soaring diesel prices

One of Canada’s leading energy analysts is warning of “stratospheric” diesel prices in coming weeks and months, and the pressure is not limited to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“I don’t see any end in sight,” Canadians for Affordable Energy president Dan McTeague told trucknews.com. “Prices are going to reach stratospheric levels.”

diesel pump
(Photo: istock)

The price of diesel is forecasted to increase seven cents per liter on Thursday alone, meaning an increase of about 19 cents over just three trading days, he said.

Prices traditionally rise five to six cents per liter as refiners shift away from producing winter diesel in favor of summer blends, McTeague said.

But that is building on top of challenges relating to overall supply and the global market, now facing added pressures relating to economic sanctions on Russia.

“All these things are compounding the scenario where diesel will continue to rise dramatically – likely ahead of gasoline,” he said. “Oil marching to $120 a barrel, I think that’s a given. That should add another 10 cents [per liter].”

Brent crude, a global benchmark for oil prices, hit $113 per barrel on Wednesday, reaching levels not seen since 2014.

While Canada is banning all petroleum products from Russia as part of a series of economic sanctions linked to the invasion of Ukraine, it’s largely a symbolic gesture. Canada has not imported crude oil from Russia since 2019.

To compound matters, the federal carbon tax is set to increase to $50 per tonne on April 1, up from the $40 per tonne charged today.

John G. Smith is the editorial director of Newcom Media's trucking and supply chain publications -- including Today's Trucking, trucknews.com, TruckTech, Transport Routier, Inside Logistics, Waste & Recycling, and Road Today. The award-winning journalist has covered the trucking industry since 1995.


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  • This why we need a action plan and 1 or 2 new refineries one at Alberta bc line and maybe a second one at ont Quebec line and more parking with electric plugs and cheap sleeping rooms or driver lounge that people can get medical attention at if disabled and homeless and still drivi g truck or sick

  • I really find it so sad that we as Canadians are paying these high almost exorbitant prices when we have so much oil of our own in this country.. But with marketing boards and high taxes and carbon taxes.. Its get to the point when we pay more then 54 percent taxes on our income and the government wonders why so many young guys just work under the table for cash