CHICAGO (April 10, 2002, via truckinginfo.com) — An uptick in new truck orders is being driven by the economy, not pre-buying to avoid tougher emissions standards, says Steve Keate, Truck Group president, International Truck & Engine.

“When you look at the time line, these are not orders being slotted in the August/September time frame,” he told journalists during a teleconference. “These are orders being slotted near term, which tells me this is demand strengthened by the economy and not a pre-buy.”

Keate also indicated that fears regarding the new engines, which must meet stricter emissions rules starting Oct. 1, could be exaggerated. Engine and truck manufacturers will have to recoup huge investments required for the changes, so prices will likely go up $3000 to $5000 US per unit. International, in fact, has already announced price increases to its dealers.

Fuel economy may deteriorate, but not for all customers. “People need to keep in mind that many customers are operating older engines,” he noted. “The fuel economy of a new Cummins ISX versus an old ISX might have deteriorated 1 to 5%, but there will be no impact if you’re going from an N14 to a new ISX.”

Keate says his compeny doesn’t expect any significant changes in reliability and durability and, at least regarding International trucks, performance and driveability may even be better. The company’s new 7000 and 8000 series trucks were designed around the new engines so, working with the engine makers, they were able to build in some performance enhancements.

“I think our products in the market after October will be superior,” he said. “We like to talk about all the negatives, but there are positives as well.”

Still, International is making good its promise to “manage production” in order to discourage pre-buying. The company has gone from 110 to about 120 trucks per day and is targeting 150 a day by August, but will stop there. “We’re not going to add fixed costs to meet a near-term spike in demand,” Keate said.

Additionally, the company is in the processing of instituting a “pretty significant cancellation penalty” that will apply to dealers and customers. “We need to do that so we can finalize production rates and get them to the engine makers so they can manage their transition from the old to the new,” he explained.