Spot market rates posted their strongest March in two years, but can they keep pace with rapidly increasing diesel prices?

So far, they have been, according to the latest data. But the outlook for shippers is ominous, according to FTR, which says its Shippers Conditions Index could soon reach its lowest-ever reading.

A March to remember

Let’s start with the good news. DAT Freight & Analytics reports that truckload spot and contract rates hit their highest levels in more than two years in March, as freight volumes also rose across all equipment types.

Truckload volumes rise 12% for dry van, 7% for reefer and 18% for flatdeck truckers in March compared to February volumes.

On the spot market, van rates jumped 11 cents/mile to $2.52, reefers 9 cents/mile to $2.97 and flatdeck rates soared 37 cents a mile to $3.09. Rates were also up substantially year over year, DAT reported.

However, much of the March increase was due to skyrocketing fuel prices. DAT reported truckload van and reefer spot rates were actually below February levels when accounting for the jump in diesel prices.

“Linehaul rates were still under pressure through most of March, which tells you demand hasn’t fully caught up yet,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics.

Fuel surcharges on the rise

DAT also reported fuel surcharges rose across all equipment types. Van fuel surcharges rose from 41 cents/mile to 61 cents/mile, their highest level since late 2022.

“For context, monthly average van fuel surcharges averaged around 40 cents per mile throughout most of 2025,” Adamo said. “The March reading represents a 50% increase from that baseline.”

Contract rates also moved higher with rising fuel costs. Contract van rates jumped 20 cents/mile in March, to $2.72, reefer rates jumped 22 cents/mile to $3.10 and flatbed rates jumped 30 cents/mile to $3.43.

“Right now, the smartest players are pricing contracts based on where they believe the market is going and being transparent about those assumptions, leaving room to adjust if conditions change,” Adamo said of rate negotiations between shippers and carriers.

Shippers could see toughest conditions on record

The latest FTR Shippers Conditions Index sank to a -11.9 reading in February, reflecting the toughest market conditions for shippers since March 2022. And it’s going to get worse, FTR reported, referring to the anticipated March reading.

“We haven’t finalized the March SCI data yet, but the index will indicate either the toughest or second toughest month ever for shippers, at least going back to the beginning of the data series in 2000,” predicted FTR’s vice president of trucking, Avery Vise.

“A big warning sign for shippers is how strongly spot rates in trucking rose in response to surging fuel prices as that indicates very tight capacity. Contrast that to March 2022 when dry van and refrigerated van spot rates continued to fall even as diesel prices soared. The one aspect of the market that is not exerting much pressure on shippers currently is freight demand, which remains a wild card in determining how difficult the market might become.”

Latest van and reefer rate data show slight pullback

Truckstop.com is reporting declines in dry van and reefer spot market rates for the week ended April 10, the first week of declines since the conflict in the Middle East broke out. Flatbed rates bucked the trend, rising for the 15^th straight week to their strongest levels since July 2022.

Total spot rates rose 7.3 cents/mile on the week – the smallest increase in five weeks, but reaching their strongest level since June 2022. Truckstop.com and FTR project that a trucker averaging a modest 6 mpg will have seen spot market rates match the 29 cents/mile or so added cost of diesel over the past five weeks.

Total load activity edged up 1.5% in the latest week, while load postings were up about 44% year over year.

“The Market Demand Index – the ratio of loads to trucks – increased to the highest level since February 2022,” the companies said.